Do the Angels have what it takes?
Here's what should be an uncontroversial statement: the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are the best team in baseball this season.
At this writing, the Angels, who are fresh off a sweep of the New York Yankees, have a hefty 14-game lead in the American League West. Moreover, they've got the best record in baseball, and they're on pace for a franchise-record 102 wins. They win at home (36-22), they win on the road (38-21) and they win against the AL East (27-13), the AL Central (18-10), their own division (19-12) and the NL (10-8 in interleague play). As well, GM Tony Reagins took the bold step of adding first baseman Mark Teixeira at the deadline, thereby shoring up an offensive weakness without compromising the defense.
To be sure, the Angels' success this season and their standing as one of the best organizations in baseball raise the possibility of a second championship. But are they the kind of team that tends to thrive in postseason play? In other words, are the Angels, the best team in baseball, likely to win the World Series?
First and foremost, it must be acknowledged that there's a great bit of randomness in the postseason. You're dealing with a small sample size of games, and that means fluke-ish, aberrant outcomes are quite possible. After all, only once in the past 10 years has the team with the best regular-season record gone on to win it all (Boston in 2007). Luck plays a substantial role in the best-of-five and best-of-seven series, and that's the reality of postseason play.
With all that said, however, teams that do succeed in October tend to have a few things in common.
In the book Baseball Between the Numbers, this scribe and Baseball Prospectus analyst Nate Silver tackled this very subject. It turns out that teams that go deep into the postseason tend to play good defense, strike out lots of opposing batters and have dominating, shutdown closers. For the most part, it's about pitching and defense, as received wisdom has always maintained. There are, of course, numerous exceptions to the rule, but generally those are the kinds of teams that thrive within the environs of playoff baseball. And that, obviously, brings us back to the Angels.
The good news for Anaheim is that offense tends to be less important in the postseason, and that so happens to be the Angels' primary shortcoming (they rank a mere eighth in the 14-team AL in runs scored per game). To assess further how well the Angels fit the above mold, we'll take a look at Defensive Efficiency, which is the percentage of balls in play a defense converts into outs, staff strikeout rate and a scary-sounding Baseball Prospectus metric called Relievers' Expected Wins Added (WXRL), which measures how a reliever, for better or worse, alters the game situation once he enters (it takes into account quality of opposing hitters and whether a given appearance is high pressure, among other factors). So here's how the Angels rank in those three categories (see table at right):
As you can see, the Angels stack up well in terms of defense and closer quality (just Brad Lidge and Joe Nathan outdo Francisco Rodriguez in terms of WXRL), but they don't strike out many hitters. On the whole, though, they grade out fairly well relative to other clubs. In fact, just the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs fare better in terms of this trio of indicators. For the Angels' purposes, there's always the possibility that the Red Sox will miss out on the postseason, and there's also the fact that they're a robust 8-1 against Boston this season. As for the Cubs, they obviously wouldn't be able to face the Angels until the World Series, and they also have serious trouble winning on the road (they're just 26-30 away from Wrigley). That's of course significant, since the AL pennant winner will have home-field advantage in the World Series.
Overall, this year's Angel model certainly isn't the ideal postseason team, the poor K rate tells you that much, but, as mentioned, they boast K-Rod and a sound defensive unit. Relative to other likely playoff teams, they're well-poised. A championship is, of course, not to be assumed, and, as the cliche goes, anything can happen in a short series. The Angels, however, combine regular-season greatness with a roster that for the most part is built to win in October. So a second title for Mike Scioscia's Angels is a strong possibility.
2008 Fox Sports Interactive Media, LLC.
Angels Earn Best Record By Focusing On Fundamentals
Speed doesn't take a day off. Fundamentals usually don't have ups and downs. Pitching and defense keep most games within reach.
The Angels, who have the best record in baseball (69-41) and are on a post All-Star break rampage through the Northeast, aren't doing anything innovative. They're just doing it right, doing the little things with brilliance.
"We aren't re-inventing the wheel here," said manager Mike Scioscia, who has molded the franchise in his own image over the past eight years. "We stress the fundamentals, creating things on the bases, the pitcher-catcher relationship, which we think is the key to the defensive side, situational hitting."
The Angels, who won the World Series in 2002, have knocked on the door most years since. They stacked their pitching deck a little higher this year with the addition of Jon Garland, and they added a little more power with Torii Hunter and, most recently, Mark Teixeira. They swept the Red Sox last week at Fenway Park, where the defending champs had been unbeatable, and blew out the Yankees Thursday in the first game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium with three three-run homers.
"Our players aren't robots," Scioscia says. "We have breakdowns from time to time, but our lineup is getting a little bit deeper now, where we can absorb some (mistakes)."
Scioscia believes all teams stress the things the Angels do. But no team has done it as effectively, or as consistently, as the Angels have the past six years. This year's team is a prototype for the Angels' brand of ball — entering the weekend the Angels were ninth in the league in runs scored, fourth in runs allowed, but led all of baseball by far in the one category they consider major: wins.
The Yankees have been talking about getting back to manufacturing runs for years but still rely heavily on home runs, which haven't come as frequently this season, and don't yet have the range and arms on defense to counteract the relentless running of the Angels, the only team with a winning record against the Yankees during Joe Torre's era. "You have to be ready for them pitching-wise, offensively and especially defensively," Derek Jeter said, "because they're going to put pressure on you all the time."
The Red Sox featured speed and defense to win their second championship, and trading Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay may improve them in that sense. Only the Rays really have the kind of team the Angels do, and it's no coincidence that their manager, Joe Maddon, was Scioscia's bench coach and a player-development guy for the Angels.
"A lot of us came up through the Dodger organization," said Scioscia, who was a catcher for the Dodgers in the 1980s and came up slowly through their system. "We had the fundamentals hammered into us, and it had a big impact on us."
Over the years, the Angels have collected players who can do more than get on base. Chone Figgins, their leadoff hitter, can play several positions well, and always seems to shorten games against the Yankees with spectacular plays. Their biggest free agent acquisition of recent years, Vladimir Guerrero, is a free-swinging slugger, but also a defensive star when healthy. Hunter plays a similar game in center field. Teixeira, also a slugger, plays first base at a high level. When the Angels sensed shortstop Orlando Cabrera was losing his range, they shipped him to the White Sox and now play Maicer Izturis there. They've had a string of strong defensive catchers.
"They play a lot the way Mike Scioscia used to play," said Yankees manager Joe Girardi. "I used to love watching him, blocking balls, getting the most out of pitchers."
As always, the Angels have a bench full of useful, athletic players, not one-dimensional pinch hitters. As for Angels pitchers, they had three in the All-Star Game, and John Lackey, who nearly no-hit the Red Sox Tuesday, was not one of them. Lackey, Garland, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver make for a deep rotation, and their bullpen, anchored by the incomparable Francisco Rodriguez, who with 45 saves is chasing Bobby Thigpen's record for saves in a season (57), rarely allows a lead to get away. On offense, it's get-them-on, get-them-over and get-them-in.
"When you play that way, things are going to work out for you most of the time," Johnny Damon said.
Copyright 2008, The Hartford Courant
Struggling Sox nearly no-hit by LA's John Lackey
The Red Sox (team stats) prevented John Lackey from throwing a no-hitter with two outs to go last night. The good news stopped there. The bad news kept coming.
In the aftermath of a 6-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, the Red Sox were as sullen as they were disappointed with themselves. The Sox recognized the cold reality that they had just played an inferior brand of baseball in front of a superior team that earlier in the day probably got substantially better by trading for Mark Teixeira. A great day for the Angels was hell for the home team.
"We're not playing good baseball - I think it's time we start doing that," said Dustin Pedroia (stats), whose ninth-inning, one-out single broke up the no-hit bid and was followed by Kevin Youkilis (stats)' two-run home run. "It's not like anybody in our division is going to lose. We're separated by a few games, everybody is playing good, seems like we're not.
"We got to start playing hard and winning games. We got beat in every aspect of the game, you name it, they whupped us in it."
Getting un-whupped is going to take some work for a team that has lost seven in a row to Los Angeles, and has lost the first two series of a homestand in which they have won one game in five tries against the New York Yankees and an Angels team with the best record in baseball.
"It's a lack of doing anything - nobody brought any energy, nobody did anything," said Pedroia. "They killed us. It felt like we weren't even in the game."
Nobody symbolized that as much as Manny Ramirez (stats). Ramirez did his already suffering popularity ratings no favors in the seventh inning when he reminded nobody of U.S. Olympic sprinter Tyson Gay after hitting a high chopper to Angels third baseman Chone Figgins. The long throw from Figgins was high and first baseman Robb Quinlan was forced to leap off the bag to snare it. Ramirez, however, had not quite reached the bag, so Quinlan had time to come down for the out.
It could be that the tendinitis Ramirez has in either his right or left knee, or both, slowed him down some, but the boos from the crowd did not sound real sympathetic to such a theory. Clay Buchholz (2-6) was unable to keep up with Lackey (9-2) as the Angels right-hander approached the Sox starter's magical no-hit night at Fenway less than a year ago. Buchholz gave up six runs (five earned) on six hits in 6 1/3 innings. Lackey has seldom pitched well at Fenway. He carried a 1-4 career record and 7.46 ERA into the outing, plus he was coming off a start in which he allowed six runs and eight hits in just five innings.
"He did a great job, he was aggressive in the zone, he elevated a little bit and late in the game he found his breaking ball," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek (stats) said. "He gained confidence and was able to entice a lot of fly balls early. He pitched different. He stayed aggressive the whole time."
The Sox responded with little more than a shrug. "Their record is not a fluke. It's indicative of how they play," said third baseman Mike Lowell, whose seventh error of the season with one out in the third gave the Angels an opening they used to score the game's first two runs. "If we want to make the playoffs, we have to play better.
We have to consistently play better baseball."
Copyright by the Boston Herald and Herald Media.
For a change, it's fun to be a fan
The gathering of civic leaders was meant to celebrate the coming Dew Tour event at Camden Yards. But all anyone could talk about, Mike Gibbons noticed, was the Orioles. Afterward, Gibbons, executive director of the Sports Legends Museum, walked over to watch that night's game. "You could feel the excitement of 32,000, and it was tangible beyond anything I've felt there since we were in the playoffs against Cleveland in 1997," he said. More recently, his son was out of town for a baseball tournament and phoned home several times to get updates on Orioles games.
"I bring these examples up," Gibbons said, "because I think the community does sense a turn for the better with their baseball team."
Nearing the season's midpoint, the Orioles, predicted to lose 100 games by many experts, have won more than they've lost - restoring some pride to the organization and the city. Their 41-38 mark (through Saturday's game) might not evoke memories of championship teams in 1966 or 1970 or 1983, but for a fan base battered by 10 years of losing records and directionless management, it's a start. The chatter on bar stools and talk radio programs has shifted from "Oh no, we didn't think they could get any worse" to "Gee, they're not so bad." Attendance and TV ratings are up. And fans have begun to express faith in team president Andy MacPhail and manager Dave Trembley.
"It's like they're a new team," said Amanda Roberts, a paralegal from Parkville who walked to Camden Yards during her lunch break Thursday to buy tickets. "I'd always support them, because I grew up here, and that's just what you do. But it's much easier this year."
It'll be easier still, she said, when the team puts "Baltimore" back on its road jerseys, a goodwill announcement that has distinguished this season. The Orioles just won two of three games at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, the team with what was then baseball's best record. After the nine-game road trip that ends today against the Washington Nationals, the Orioles return to Camden Yards to face the Kansas City Royals tomorrow night. This year's team has won fans over by specializing in comebacks and one-run wins. Fans have also embraced a slew of new players - from closer George Sherrill with his straight-billed cap to center fielder Adam Jones, whose composed, thoughtful demeanor belies his age. Given recent second-half collapses and a lack of All-Star talent, many fans don't expect the winning to keep up. But even skeptics seem enchanted for the moment.
"I mean, I really love this team," said Jayson Hill of Pasadena, who has followed the Orioles for 30 years. "If they lost every game from here out, I'd still love them. You can't put a price tag on cardiac kids and that style of play. Being at an Orioles game now has such suspense and excitement. Even watching the games on TV has become fun again."
Though the lineup remains full of veterans such as Melvin Mora and Kevin Millar, fans feel they're watching a fresh product. "I would say the biggest change is that people have less to complain about; they're less angry," said Steve Davis, who fields dozens of Orioles calls a day for his evening sports talk show on WBAL (1090 AM). "We have a team that exceeds expectations, and when was the last time you could say that here? It's kind of like reaching a hand in your pocket every morning and finding a $20 bill. It's a pleasant surprise."
The more optimistic tone is reflected, modestly, in attendance and television ratings. The Orioles have drawn 27,531 fans a game, better than 2,000 a game more than at the same point last season (though an unfavorable late-season schedule could mitigate that improvement). Team officials have expressed cautious optimism about the figures, saying they expect to hold steady or improve slightly from last season's average of 27,060, the second-lowest attendance since the club moved to Camden Yards in 1992. TV ratings on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network have improved from 3.1 (which equates to 3.1 percent of television households in the market) last year to 3.3 this year in Baltimore, and from 0.5 to 0.8 in Washington. The spirit of renewal isn't lost on the players.
"For me, it's been one of the most fun seasons I've ever had," said Aubrey Huff, who infuriated fans with offseason criticism about Baltimore but has wooed them back with 14 home runs. "The game is fun again for me. Obviously, going into spring training, there were a lot of question marks, a lot of doubt. But playing this well for this long has kind of turned that around."
The Orioles have charmed fans in part by managing expectations. Past regimes claimed that first place wasn't far off, even though others around baseball saw a ship without first-rate sailors or much of a course. Going into this season, MacPhail and Trembley acknowledged a true rebuilding effort and promised only that the team would give its best effort day after day. Given that MacPhail had just traded his best hitter, Miguel Tejada, and his best pitcher, Erik Bedard, outside observers thought the club could be the worst in baseball. ESPN analyst and former Sun Orioles beat writer Buster Olney predicted a whopping 106 losses. Last week, he admitted in an online chat that his prediction had been "blown out of the water."
"What they've accomplished this year in spite of their apparent roster weaknesses is really extraordinary." Olney said. If the Orioles are wowing analysts with their competence, imagine how happy they have made long-suffering fans. "At this point in the year, people are much more optimistic than they were last season," said Tom Leonard, who manages Pickles Pub, a popular pre-game hangout across the street from Camden Yards.
He sees more and more fans entering with straight-brimmed hats, a nod to Sherrill's style. And he has noticed that fans no longer roll out of the park or bar in the sixth or seventh inning. "They hang around until the last inning," he said. "They really believe this team will come back."
The Orioles have come from behind in more than half of their wins, so that isn't a bad bet. "There's no quit in this team," said Wayne Ridgeway of Millersville, who has bought tickets to six games this year after attending only three in 2007. "That hasn't been the case in recent seasons. If it keeps going, I think Trembley has to be up for Manager of the Year."
Fans talk about MacPhail's plan for the club without a hint of the sarcasm or fatalism they reserved for his predecessors. "For the first time in many years, I feel like maybe our ownership has hired a true baseball genius and will let him rebuild this franchise," said Fallston resident Steve Morlock, a fan for 45 years. Skepticism lingers for some, and it's not hard to understand why. The club's most appalling collapses in recent seasons have come after the All-Star break. There was the 4-32 finish in 2002. And the 8-18 July, followed by a steroid suspension for Rafael Palmeiro, that ruined a winning first half in 2005. And don't forget the 30-3 loss last August that began a 3-18 stretch. If you think all that is past, consider a few points. This year's Orioles have actually given up more runs than they have scored. Their 17-11 record in one-run contests might be a tribute to the bullpen, but it might also mean they've been plain lucky, some analysts say. Oh, and they're still stuck in fourth place. Even if the Orioles improve for real, their division remains an imposing mountain to climb. The Red Sox are smart and rich. The Yankees have the league's best player in Alex Rodriguez and are richer still. The Tampa Bay Rays, after years of miserable play, have the best young talent in baseball. WBAL's Davis says he won't be shocked if the Orioles hit a skid and fans are ready to look ahead to the Ravens by early August. But when listeners start with gloomy predictions, he urges them to stop and live in the moment. "I tell them to just enjoy it," he said.
Copyright 2008, The Baltimore Sun
MLB WATCH: THE GAMES
Rays 8, Cubs 3: Carl Crawford hit his second career grand slam, the biggest blow in a seven-run rally in the seventh inning that carried host Tampa Bay to a three-game sweep of the team with baseball's best record.
"We've been playing good," Crawford said. "After winning three games like this, it's going to be hard to argue that we're not one of the good teams."
At 43-29, the Rays have the third-best record in the majors behind the Cubs and Red Sox. They're 14 games over .500 for the first time in franchise history and have set a club record for victories before the All-Star break. "It validates what we've been doing. It does give us more confidence," Rays manager Joe Maddon said of the sweep.
Rangers 5, Braves 4: Michael Young broke out of a deep slump with a walk-off RBI single and rookie Brandon Boggs hit a three-run homer for host Texas. Atlanta's Chipper Jones went 0-for-4 and his major league-leading batting average fell below .400 for the first time since April 12. He's hitting .394.
Twins 9, Nationals 3: Michael Cuddyer hit a two-run triple as host Minnesota completed a three-game sweep.
Orioles 7, Astros 5: Alex Cintron had three hits, including one of his team's three home runs, as host Baltimore extended Houston's losing streak to eight with a three-game sweep.
Royals 4, Cardinals 1: Zack Greinke (6-4) and two relievers combined on a two-hitter as visiting Kansas City completed its first three-game sweep of St. Louis since 2001. Mark Teahen missed the cycle by a double and had three RBIs for the Royals.
White Sox 13, Pirates 8: Jermaine Dye hit two homers, including a seventh-inning grand slam, and drove in six runs as host Chicago finished a three-game sweep. Orlando Cabrera homered and had four RBIs for the White Sox, who face the Cubs at Wrigley Field today.
Diamondbacks 2, Athletics 1: Justin Upton hit a tiebreaking homer in the eighth and also doubled and scored host Arizona's other run.
Rockies 6, Indians 3: Jorge De La Rosa (2-3) struck out a career-high 10 and Willy Taveras had three hits and scored twice as host Colorado completed a sweep of the three-game series.
Dodgers 7, Reds 4: Matt Kemp homered and had a two-run double as visiting Los Angeles completed a three-game sweep. Eric Stults pitched into the seventh in his season debut.
Copyright 2008, Newsday Inc.
Despite Soriano injury, Cubs fans should be happy
Come on, Cub fans. You didn't expect it to be easy, did you? No one should have to tell you that stuff happens. Take a deep breath. Think pleasant thoughts. This is your year. One injury isn't going to change that. You've waited a century, so what's a little angst among friends? Having some bumps in the road will make the champagne taste that much sweeter in October. Sure, you've lost Alfonso Soriano for a few weeks with a broken bone. He's a terrific offensive player, but don't forget how you were complaining about him a couple of weeks ago. It's not the first time the Cubs have played without him this season. They were 10-5 during his first stint on the disabled list.
Besides, your team is leading the National League in runs. Your team also is leading the NL in ERA. More on that later. Take a look at the standings. The Cubs have the best record in baseball. That's no fluke. One player isn't going to dismantle everything Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella have constructed. You were close to burying most of your competition in the National League Central when Soriano was injured Wednesday night. Only the Cardinals are still within shouting distance, and look at the trouble they've got. 0While the Cubs were putting Soriano on the disabled list, the Cardinals were placing both their best hitter (Albert Pujols) and their No. 1 starter (Adam Wainwright) on the shelf. Both could be gone a month.
The Cardinals have 11 players on the disabled list in all, including nine pitchers (five starters). They've got the game's best manager and a great core, but losing Pujols and Wainwright changes everything. The Brewers? Take a walk through their clubhouse after a game. There are so many bad vibes in that place it might explode. The Brewers are going nowhere. As for the Astros, Reds and Pirates, the Reds are getting more interesting by the day, but they simply dug themselves too big a hole. So go ahead and believe, Cub fans. You're at the intersection of destiny and opportunity. Enjoy the ride. This team is spectacularly fun to watch, and with Wrigley Field packed, you're going to have a great summer. No team has a better chance to win. Let's begin with the lineup. The Cubs have a deep one. They may not have the individual firepower of some other clubs, but they're solid top to bottom. The Cubs feed off one another. Baseball people call it "lineup chemistry." In other words, they believe in one another.
Five Cubs are hitting above .300 with runners in scoring position, led by Reed Johnson at .375. Soriano and Derrek Lee provide power, Ryan Theriot speed and Kosuke Fukudome a little bit of everything. Upon learning of Soriano's injury, Piniella said: "It's a shame, but those things happen in baseball. We have a farm system, and we'll utilize it. It's unfortunate, but what can you do?"
As for the rotation, it's built for October baseball. That's presuming Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster are going good when the weather turns cold. The rest of the rotation has been nothing special, but Ted Lilly has two nice starts in June and Jason Marquis just had a solid outing at Dodger Stadium. The bullpen is deep, deep, deep. Kerry Wood has converted 14 of his last 15 save chances. Carlos Marmol throws 100 mph. Scott Eyre has strung together 31 straight scoreless appearances. If this analysis doesn't sound like the 1927 Yankees, the Cubs don't have to be. The Diamondbacks are coming back to the pack. The Mets are mediocre. Only the Phillies seem seriously capable of challenging the Cubs.
Plenty can change between now and October. Plenty has happened to the Cubs over the years. Real Cub fans can mark time by catastrophic defeats. Even the most pessimistic Cub fans probably are starting to get a different feeling about this team. There's a toughness about it, which probably begins with the manager. There seems to be some magic. The Cubs won their 10th straight home game on Wednesday. They feel they can overcome any lead, any injury, even one to Soriano. This is what you've been waiting for, Cub fans. See you in the fall.
2008 SportingNews.com
Sheets fans Pujols, sets Brewers record
MILWAUKEE. Brewers right-hander Ben Sheets reached the top of the club's career strikeout list Saturday afternoon.
Thanks to a swing and a miss by St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols in the first inning, Sheets surpassed Brewers great Ted Higuera with his 1,082nd career strikeout baseball record.
In his eighth season, Sheets entered the game two strikeouts behind Higuera before getting Aaron Miles and Pujols to close a 1-2-3 first. Sheets, who is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA seventh in the NL had 32 strikeouts coming into Saturday. He is 77-74 for his career, having logged 1,269 innings in 196 starts since 2001, and is a three-time All-Star.
Higuera, who pitched parts of nine seasons with Milwaukee from 1985-1994, went 94-64 with a 3.61 ERA over 1,380 innings. He was an All-Star in 1986, when he won 20 games.
2001-2008 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
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